The project will begin by examining three well monitored, active volcanoes (Soufrière Hills, Montserrat; Galeras, Colombia, and Tungurahua, Ecuador) to analyse what happened during several volcanic emergencies; including how well activity was forecast and the community and policy responses. These are STREVA's forensic volcanoes.
Using this analysis, we will develop:
(i) better methods for forecasting the start of eruptions and changes in activity during eruption;
(ii) better ways to predict areas at-risk (the "footprint") from different volcanic hazards;
(iii) an understanding of the factors that make people and their assets more vulnerable to volcanic threats;
(iv) an understanding of institutional constraints and capacities and how to improve incentives for risk reduction
We will then integrate these new data and methods to develop a new dynamic risk assessment framework. This will be further tested at three high-risk volcanoes where monitoring and understanding is less advanced (Soufrière St Vincent, St Vincent; Cerro Machin, Colombia, and Cuicocha, Ecuador). These are known as STREVA's trial volcanoes. All six case studies will help the team to identify common issues in volcanic disaster risk to develop regional risk assessment processes, improve long-term planning and consider the applicability of our findings in other settings worldwide.
By the end of the project, this new knowledge will help us to measure volcanic risk more accurately and monitor how that risk is changing. Importantly, by taking this interdisciplinary, collaborative approach, STREVA will have real impacts in real places, and will significantly advance the fields of volcanic risk analysis and disaster risk reduction.