2. Assessing hazard footprints
This work package focuses on improved spatial and temporal forecasting of the footprints of key volcanic hazardous processes, with particular emphasis on lahars (in line with the IRNH call and CARIBRISK outcomes). Existing widely-used models of lahar hazard (e.g. LAHARZ of the US Geological Survey; Iverson et al 1998) lack the detailed physical description to enable prediction of lahar arrival time and inundation and there is an urgent need for improved forecasting tools. Model performance is also limited by DEM resolution (Davila et al 2007) but future developments (e.g. TanDEM-X available in 2014) should lead to a step change in forecasting ability, and this WP will additionally benefit from close links with the CREDIBLE proposal (NERC PURE) in which Phillips is a co-investigator on uncertainty in lahar and avalanche models. Existing and new stochastic modelling approaches will be used to assess pyroclastic flow and ashfall, and characterise their input into lahar hazard.