5. Risk analysis framework
Research findings from work packages one to four will be used to develop new ways to characterise volcanic risk. This will be done in Work Package 5. Globally, there is no one way that risk is currently characterised in volcanic settings. Risk assessments should be robust, and transparent at every stage and the results should be well communicated, a combination more easily stated than achieved. In WP5 we will improve and integrate existing Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) that currently only incorporates numerical statements of hazard with exposure. This will use findings from WP3 and 4 to develop some robust indicators of capacity, governance and vulnerability to expand this type of analysis. To consider some of the more qualitative components of risk scenario planning will then be used to create simulations at the trial volcanoes. The need for robust input from all other work packages is recognised in the inclusion of time for each WP Leader in contributing to WP5.
Key challenges that will be addressed in this work package:
(a) To identify and characterise the social and political factors that transform a physical threat into an elevated risk and to integrate these into a robust and transparent risk assessment. (b) To identify, analyse and understand dynamic components of risk. (c) To encapsulate uncertainty appropriately in all these analyses. (d) To develop robust risk assessment methods tailored to high risk volcanoes (trial volcanoes), (e) To deploy our framework to improve both preparedness (e.g. development planning processes, mitigation) and emergency response to future volcanic emergencies.
WP5 will begin with a ‘forensic' analysis and evaluation of current approaches and use that to develop innovative techniques that build on the most effective foundations.